05 December 2017

Large Turbofan Market Outlook

Author: William C. Storey, Jr., Drawn From: World Power Systems Briefing

Large Turbofan Market Outlook

In terms of units produced over the next 10 years, large turbofans account for 26.3% of the overall aero turbine market. Only turboshafts, at 23.5%, come among the other market segments. But when measured by retail value of engines delivered, the large fan segment is a whopping 67.7% of the total market, far ahead of the next nearest segment, Medium Turbofans, at just over 11%.

General Electric and its partner in CFM International—Safran—by far dominate this segment of the aero engine market. Together, they will account for 60.2% of projected revenues (in terms of estimated retail value) in the large fan sector over the next 10 years.

GE, for its part, is involved as OEM or major risk-sharing partner in no less than six of the 11 engine families in the segment (not including the notional MoM powerplant). The company's 50/50 partnership in CFMI is the primary reason for this success, however.

The new CFMI Leap is poised to take the baton from the venerable CFM56 and continue the consortium's dominance in the single-aisle jetliner propulsion market. Following in the footsteps of the CFM56, the Leap will continue CFMI's exclusivity on the Boeing 737 and will split orders for propulsion duties on the A320 family, this time doing battle with Pratt & Whitney's geared turbofan (GTF), the PW1000G instead of the International Aero Engines (IAE) V2500.

In the higher thrust sub-segment, GE has its GE90 as exclusive power-plant on the Boeing 777. Now the air-framer is working on a replacement for the Triple Seven now that the 787 Dreamliner is entering full production. The 777X exclusively will use a new engine from GE called the GE9X.
As for the GEnx, it is settling in for a multi-decade competition with the Rolls-Royce Trent on the Dreamliner. The GE engine also has a monopoly on the 747-8 to bolster the bottom line, although this will slowly evaporate during the next decade.

Adding to all of this—helping GE achieve a 36.4% share of the overall large fan new-build revenues over the next decade—are the legacy CF6, with an average production of about 34 units per annum, and GE's share in the GP7200 (winding down), built by the "everybody but Rolls" consortium, Engine Alliance.
Safran achieves its second-place 23.8% share of the large fan market without being an OEM on a single engine. Primary, of course, is the French company's involvement in CFMI on the CFM56 and Leap. But Snecma also has a piece of the action on the CF6, GE90 (and likely the GE9X) and GP7200.

Following in third ranking, at almost 13% of the market, is Rolls-Royce with its single offering in the segment, the Trent. Three of the five applications for the big British fan (A330neo, A350, and 787) will remain in series production during the next 10 years. Only the Trent-powered A340 and 777 have finished production. Even though requirements for the A380 and A330ceo are winding down, the A350 will more than pick up the slack in the out-years.

Pratt & Whitney has improved its position in the large fan market—to surpass Rolls—with the introduction of the innovative PW1000G. (It must be noted that a slice of GTF production, that for the Mitsubishi MRJ and Embraer E-Jets, is accounted for in our Medium Turbofans segment.) The company's position further has been bolstered by the buyout of Rolls' share in the IAE joint venture. Adding in the proceeds from the older PW2000 and PW4000 will give Pratt a 15.9% share of the market.

About the Author

William C. Storey, Jr.

William C. Storey, Jr.

Bill is founder and president of Teal Group, a company he established in 1987 to provide business intelligence for the worldwide aerospace and defense community. The company currently comprises six analysts and several other support personnel. Primary activities focus on the forecast of the production of, and the markets for, a wide variety of aerospace and defense equipment, including military and civilian aircraft, missiles and smart munitions, spacecraft and launch vehicles, and electronics.

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