Russia's Space Station Confusion

It now looks like the Russians will continue to participate in the International Space Station (ISS) past 2024. As you may recall, on July 21 it was reported that Yuri Borisov, the director of Russia’s national space agency (Rosaviacosmos), said that Russia would pull out of the ISS in 2024. This caused a minor stir in the West because the station depends on the Zvezda Service Module for a lot of important stuff, including living quarters, life support systems, electrical power distribution, data processing systems, flight control systems and propulsion systems.

Zvezda is the core module for the station, and without it it’s unclear what the United States and its international partners would do to keep the station operating another few years. By now, NASA should have had contingency plans on the off chance the Russians might decide to quit the program earlier than the envisioned 2028 or 2030. But none exist, mainly because the US lacks the heavy launch capability needed to carry a replacement module to low Earth orbit (LEO)—the kind once provided by the Space Shuttle fleet.

But not to worry, it seems the Russians are having second thoughts. They’re now saying that they’ll exit the ISS sometime after 2024. When exactly? It all depends on when they feel ready to proceed with their own national space station, the “Russian Orbital Service Station.” The Russians have been aiming to start launching modules for their new station by 2028, but a project of this magnitude may be tough to undertake for a country that will likely be facing severe economic problems for the foreseeable future, given Western sanctions due to the unpleasant situation in the Ukraine.

NASA would like there to be an uninterrupted US human presence at LEO. But it knows the ISS, as it currently stands, has a limited lifetime. The years 2028 and 2030 are target years based on when NASA foresees commercial space stations being built and deployed. NASA is pushing the development of several commercial space station programs via its Commercial Low Earth Orbit Destinations (CLD) initiative. The agency would like there to be a seamless transition from the ISS to a next-generation commercial station, thereby ensuring that desired continuous American presence at LEO. However, I’m not sure any of the commercial efforts are on track to have station-like modules ready by the end of this decade. So there’s a big question there.