Washington, DC — Thursday, December 1, 2016. In his latest monthly update of Teal Group’s “Military Electronics Briefing (MEB) competitive intelligence service, Dr. David L. Rockwell includes new evaluations and forecasts for numerous directed infrared countermeasures (DIRCM) systems, as well as a 10-year forecast of airborne signals intelligence (SIGINT) systems and programs.
Rockwell also presents new open-source forecasts of speculative classified and future programs – to allow Teal’s clients to plan for future needs before the RFIs (Requests for Information) and RFPs (Requests for Proposals) are released.
Teal Group released details of its latest MEB additions during the 53rd Annual AOC (Association of Old Crows) International Symposium and Convention at the Marriott Marquis and DC Convention Center, November 29 - December 1, 2016, in Washington, DC.
The MEB reports cover a comprehensive range of top military electronics programs, including current and future market opportunities and quantitative 10-year funding and production forecasts for U.S and international programs.
Included are a wide range of electronic warfare and radio frequency (RF) sensor programs, for ISR as well as electronic attack and self-protection.
The DIRCM market has risen over the past decade with Northrop Grumman’s LAIRCM (Large Aircraft IR Counter Measures) for C-5s, C-17s, C-130s, and other large aircraft. The large platforms, the urgent operational need, and the pioneering nature of LAIRCM have all contributed to high per-aircraft costs, said Rockwell.
But LAIRCM’s procurement peak was reached in FY12 with $486 million in USAF funding – dropping to only $13 million in FY15. Funding will recover somewhat for Phase II upgrades, but then will drop again.
“Instead,” said Rockwell, “new programs, announced, unannounced and speculative, will lead to recovery of the DIRCM market. Northrop Grumman won Common IRCM (CIRCM) EMD in August 2015, and test production systems are now being funded, but CIRCM still stands exactly where the previous “universal” DIRCM – BAE Systems’ now-dead Advanced Threat IRCM (ATIRCM) – did more than a decade ago. The same promise for thousands of systems, but by late 2016 we have still not seen any CIRCM production. ATIRCM itself was publicly procured for fewer than 100 US Army CH-47 helicopters.”
“Thus,” continued Rockwell, “new opportunities have appeared again. Despite claiming dedication to the joint CIRCM program, the Navy in fact has funded its own Assault DIRCM (ADIRCM)somewhat on the sly – developed by DRS Technologies and Daylight Solutions – with unexpected FY17 OCO procurement funding of $27.5 million for 12 systems to be installed in 2017-18.”
Teal Group believes the DIRCM market is still wide open, with at least three producers ready today with alternatives to Northrop’s “common” CIRCM.
“We discuss and forecast a speculative Future Low-Cost DIRCM & MWS System – to be worth billions of dollars for thousands of small and mid-sized fixed and rotary-wing aircraft,” said Rockwell. “If any firm, even a non-traditional non-defense prime, provides a true $1-2 million DIRCM system – as long sought – CIRCM will see future production numbers shrink drastically, or collapse entirely like ATIRCM. With $1 million or more of per-aircraft A-kit funding hidden in other lines, CIRCM is not the $1.2 million-unit cost system often believed (already $1.5 million with B-kit installation and initial support costs…).”
Other speculative future programs forecast, said Rockwell, include a major Future Fast Jet DIRCM production program. In August 2016, the US Air Force awarded Northrop Grumman a $39.3 million, five-year contract for development efforts as part of the STRAFE (SHiELD [Self-protect High Energy Laser Demonstrator] Turret Research in Aero-Effects) Advanced Technology Demonstration (ATD), for a laser-based DIRCM system for pod-mounting on fast jets.
At some point, next decade, a major Fast Jet DIRCM procurement for US and international 4th generation fighters (F-15s, F-16s, F/A-18s) could become a multi-billion-dollar ongoing program – just as LAIRCM was for large aircraft.
Finally, in its latest monthly update to clients, said Rockwell, the MEB adds speculative forecasts for numerous current and future airborne Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) programs (essentially RF ISR…), to be worth billions of dollars over the next decade. In February 2016, the Army finally provided funding for completing development of BAE Systems’ Tactical SIGINT Payload (TSP) for the Army Gray Eagle UAV. TSP and Northrop Grumman’s Airborne SIGINT Payload (ASIP), now aboard the USAF Global Hawk UAV and manned Army Guardrail aircraft, will undoubtedly be offered for our Future MALE UAV SIGINT System forecast lines.
“But it is the US Navy that offers the most interesting speculative developments, as nearly all its UAV SIGINT has undoubtedly gone classified,” said Rockwell. “Beyond Sierra Nevada Corporation’s small AN/ZLQ-1 ESM system for the MQ-4C Triton, we evaluate and forecast a Follow-On Triton SIGINT Sensor, as well as a likely much larger Future Triton SIGINT Suite, possibly already in development for a SIGINT-only Triton, to be worth more than $100 million per year in funding, similar to Germany’s “Euro Hawk” SIGINT UAV program (which mysteriously is now considering re-mounting on new Tritons…).”
This Teal Group Military Electronics Briefing service now comprises a Military Electronics Market Overview, a Manufacturer Market Shares Overview, 17 Future “Uncontracted" Program Markets reports, 55 New Developments reports, 87 Production Systems reports, 45 Upgrade & Support reports, one Appendix comprising 38 pages of Electronics Prime Contract Awards, with a base value of $7 million or more, that involve electronic systems, and were announced by the Pentagon during the last completed fiscal quarter; and finally, 209 Discontinued (yet still available) reports.
Teal Group is an aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia USA. It provides competitive intelligence to industry and government worldwide.