Richard L. Aboulafia

IN THE MEDIA

Richard L. Aboulafia

Richard is Vice President of Analysis at Teal Group. He manages consulting projects in the commercial and military aircraft field and analyzes broader defense and aerospace trends. He has advised numerous aerospace companies, including most prime and many second- and third-tier contractors in the US, Europe and Asia. He also advises numerous financial institutions on aerospace market conditions. Full Bio >

03
June
2014

The Rise of Radical New Rotorcraft

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

The Rise of Radical New Rotorcraft

If next-generation rotorcraft will be more capable than today's fleet, they are also going to be considerably more expensive. It takes a lot of power to go fast, and bigger engines add both weight and cost. "If you want to go above 150 knots [173 mph], you're going to have to pay a premium of 50 to 100 percent," says Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group. Pentagon-funded demonstrator programs allow manufacturers to work out the kinks of new designs and bring down prices.

Media Outlet: Popular Mechanics Tags Rotorcraft

03
June
2014

The Rise of Radical New Rotorcraft (Copy)

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

The Rise of Radical New Rotorcraft (Copy)

If next-generation rotorcraft will be more capable than today's fleet, they are also going to be considerably more expensive. It takes a lot of power to go fast, and bigger engines add both weight and cost. "If you want to go above 150 knots [173 mph], you're going to have to pay a premium of 50 to 100 percent," says Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst with the Teal Group. Pentagon-funded demonstrator programs allow manufacturers to work out the kinks of new designs and bring down prices.

Media Outlet: Popular Mechanics Tags Rotorcraft

02
June
2014

Boeing Talks to Emirates About Potential 747-8 Order

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Boeing Talks to Emirates About Potential 747-8 Order

The talks give Dubai-based Emirates leverage as it pushes Airbus Group to upgrade its A380 with fuel-efficient engines, said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at Teal Group. Boeing would gain momentum for a storied jet with few sales prospects aside from replacing the Air Force One fleet, he said. “It would keep the -8I going through the decade and deliver an unpleasant blow to the A380 that’s long overdue,” Aboulafia said of a potential Emirates order.

Media Outlet: The Seattle Times Tags 748-8 | A380 | Boeing | Emirates

31
May
2014

Bombardier CSeries Flight Testing Halted After Engine Problem

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Bombardier CSeries Flight Testing Halted After Engine Problem

A similar Pratt engine will power the rival Airbus A320neo, but the risk of the CSeries test failure affecting the Airbus timetable is remote, said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at the Teal Group, in Fairfax, Virginia. "Given all the testing the engine has been through, the incident is likely to be pretty minor," Aboulafia said. "But given all the headaches of the CSeries, this is another headache Bombardier doesn't need."

Media Outlet: Reuters Tags Bombardier | CSeries

28
May
2014

Boeing 787 Receives US Approval for Expanded Flying

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Boeing 787 Receives US Approval for Expanded Flying

The FAA approval nevertheless moves airlines an important step closer to tapping the full potential of the Dreamliner, which burns 15 percent less fuel than the Boeing 767. The approval was of little concern to investors, one Wall Street analyst said. Boeing's stock was up 0.4 percent at $134.70. But the approval appeared to come sooner than expected and its timing was seen by some as a sign of continuing tension between the two agencies, one charged with investigating accidents and the other with ensuring safety. "It certainly does seem like there's some conflict between the NTSB and the FAA," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia.

Media Outlet: Reuters Tags 787 | Boeing | Dreamliner | FAA | NTSB

27
May
2014

Dreamliner Set to Land at American Airlines

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Dreamliner Set to Land at American Airlines

Richard Aboulafia, a prominent aviation consultant, said the Dreamliner will be crucial for American as it competes with United and Delta to attract premium passengers on international routes. He suggests that American will fly it to Asia, the Middle East and secondary cities in Europe. "It is absolutely the plane you want to fly point-to-point internationally," he said, "and it's at its best at longer ranges" where the fuel efficiency pays off most.

Media Outlet: Reuters Tags 787 | American Airlines | Boeing | Dreamliner

23
May
2014

Exhibit A in G.E.’s Case for Alstom Deal

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Exhibit A in G.E.’s Case for Alstom Deal

The venture had the good fortune to propose a brand-new engine concept in the mid-1970s, around the time that the United States Air Force was considering a revamp of its entire fleet of aerial refueling tankers. At about the same time, Boeing and Airbus were preparing to develop the generation of short-range single-aisle jets that have become the workhorses of the air travel industry. “From an industry standpoint, this was a winning lottery ticket,” said Richard L. Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst with the Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia.

Media Outlet: New York Times Tags Alstom | CFM International | engines | General Electric

18
May
2014

Teal Group Sees Continuing Shift Toward Larger Bizjets

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Teal Group Sees Continuing Shift Toward Larger Bizjets

The business aviation market’s shift toward larger aircraft continues, and the effect on the industry is growing, according to Teal Group’s latest annual business jet overview. “Last year saw a welcome but largely meaningless upturn, with an impressive 16.3-percent increase in deliveries by value,” said Teal vice president of analysis Richard Aboulafia. “But all of this growth came from large-cabin jets, particularly Gulfstream’s G650. All the smaller segments remained firmly stuck in first gear.”

During the 2008 to 2012 decline, the top half of the market–jets costing $26 million and more–actually grew slightly in value, he added, while the bottom half suffered a catastrophic 56-percent drop. “The growth we saw in 2013 means that market bifurcation has gone into overdrive,” Aboulafia explained.

 

Media Outlet: Aviation International News Tags Business Jets | Gulfstream

18
May
2014

Gulfstream Rides On Wings Of Prosperity

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Gulfstream Rides On Wings Of Prosperity

“This is currently the only business jet with a premium in the used market that I’m aware of,” Teal Group aerospace analyst Richard Abouafia told AIN. “Gulfstream has a five-year head start over Bombardier’s Global 7000, which won’t enter the market until 2017. It’s almost unheard of for anyone to have this kind of market all to themselves for this long."

Media Outlet: Aviation International News Tags Bombardier | Business Jets | Global 7000 | Gulfstream

13
May
2014

Aviation Industry to Work on Voluntary Tracking Ahead of U.N. Rules

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Aviation Industry to Work on Voluntary Tracking Ahead of U.N. Rules

Created in 1944, Montreal-based ICAO coordinates between the 191 states that have signed the Chicago Convention, the main treaty that governs civil aviation. The organisation sets binding standards, and prefers to find a consensus among member countries, which is time-consuming. "The real issue is who is in charge of mandating better tracking," said Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace analyst at Teal Group, in Fairfax, Virginia. "If it is the industry, they will have to bear all the uncertainty about technical change, negotiations with pilots and so on. It is not just about nickel and diming in safety, there is real uncertainty."

Media Outlet: Flightglobal Tags Aircraft Tracking | Aviation Industry

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