Teal Group In The Media

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19
August
2014

ULA Leadership Move Could Be Precursor to Further Changes

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

ULA Leadership Move Could Be Precursor to Further Changes

 The announcement put as positive a spin as possible on Gass' departure, but reading between the lines makes it clear leaders at the parent companies felt a change was needed, said Teal Group analyst Marco Caceres.

"Gass hung his hat on ULA's track record of successful launches," Caceres said. But ULA looked complacent when matched against the dynamic Elon Musk, whose SpaceX will shortly begin competing with ULA for military space launches.

Caceres said he expects to see layoffs and a streamlining of ULA to find all possible cost savings.

"My sense is you're going to see at ULA a restructuring of some sort, because ultimately they're going to have to find a way to be a lot more competitive on price," he said.

Media Outlet: Defense News Tags Atlas V | Michael Gass | ULA | United Launch Alliance

30
July
2014

US Launches 2 Spy Geo-Satellites to Track 'Nefarious Capability’ of Other Nations

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

US Launches 2 Spy Geo-Satellites to Track 'Nefarious Capability’ of Other Nations

The GSSAP satellites "could certainly be considered offensive," Defense News reported Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Teal Group, as saying. "Obviously, the US Air Force is primarily thinking of it as defensive or simply from a maintenance and repair standpoint. But if you have the ability to get close enough to other satellites to observe or repair or refuel, then sure, you could probably take them out."

Media Outlet: Russia Today Tags GSSAP

26
July
2014

Boeing Ready to Help Iran Keep Airliners Flying

Featuring: Joel Johnson

Boeing Ready to Help Iran Keep Airliners Flying

Joel Johnson, an international-affairs analyst at The Teal Group, says Iran Air "has seven or eight ancient 747s that have been quietly maintained with needed parts by a European carrier over the years, with implicit approval of the U.S."

 

Media Outlet: The Seattle Times Tags 747 | Boeing | Iran | Iran Air

25
July
2014

The Complex Pentagon: Russia Could Move Heavier Weapons Into Ukraine 'Imminently'

Featuring: Joel Johnson

The Complex Pentagon: Russia Could Move Heavier Weapons Into Ukraine 'Imminently'

"I would be astonished if the French don't deliver both ships," said Joel Johnson, a defense trade consultant with the Teal Group.

An official at the French Embassy in Washington declined to provide comment beyond what Hollande said on Monday.
Bloomberg reports that the construction of the second carrier, called the Sevastopol, is roughly 75 percent complete and paid for.

Russia is buying the ships from France because it's cheaper and faster than having to design one on its own. In the original deal, signed in 2011, the two countries agreed that the first two ships would be built and completed in France, with a third and fourth ship to be built in Russia.

Johnson said France could refuse to provide technical assistance to build the follow-on ships for Russia but that beyond that, France would most likely stick to its original agreement. This is partly because France, like other European countries, can't afford America's idealism when it comes to defense exports.

"There's no European country that can support a defense industry without exports," Johnson said. "It's much more painful for them to cut off exports and antagonize a customer than it is for the United States."

Therefore, compared to the United States, France has a reputation as a "highly dependable arms exporter," Johnson said. France risks hurting that image if it reneges on its Mistral contract with Russia.

Media Outlet: Foreign Policy Tags France | Mistral | Russia

23
July
2014

Flight Bans Show Skittishness Over Trouble Spots

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Flight Bans Show Skittishness Over Trouble Spots

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group, said airlines might be more proactive about avoiding hot spots, although he noted that there are very few areas where non-government militaries have weapons sophisticated enough to shoot down a plane.

Media Outlet: ABC News Tags Delta Air Lines | Gaza | Israel

18
July
2014

Shooting Down MH17: How Hard Would It Be To Take Down A Passenger Jet With A Buk Missile System?

Featuring: Steven J. Zaloga

Shooting Down MH17: How Hard Would It Be To Take Down A Passenger Jet With A Buk Missile System?

"It requires an extensive crew, a dozen men, and they all have to be highly trained," said Steve Zaloga, a senior analyst at Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia, and an expert in Russian military technology. "Some of the tasks are less complicated, like more administrative tasks, but difficult training is required either way."

According to Zaloga, it's not as if the pro-separatists just found the launcher and pointed it at the aircraft. First of all, operating the launcher typically requires two or three other other radar vehicles and a supporting command system.

"All of the vehicles have to interact together at the same time, which is why the U.S. government is suspicious about who was helping them use the equipment," Zaloga said.

Media Outlet: International Business Times Tags Buk | Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 | Missiles | Russia

18
July
2014

Weapon Eyed in Malaysia Jet Crash Can't Tell Planes Apart

Featuring: Steven J. Zaloga

Weapon Eyed in Malaysia Jet Crash Can't Tell Planes Apart

he powerful Cold War-era Buk missile system was built to protect Soviet army units from attacking aircraft during wartime. Unlike fixed-weapons used for national air defense, a Buk system in the field being used by separatist rebels likely wouldn't have information from air-traffic control centers, said Steve Zaloga, a senior analyst for the Teal Group Corp. in Virginia.

"The Buk system is not designed for peacetime use where it interacts with air traffic control," Zaloga said. "They would have seen a radar blip at 33,000 feet, but that's all they would have seen."

Media Outlet: NBC News Tags Buk | Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 | Missiles | Russia

30
June
2014

Airbus and Boeing Plan Increased Output

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Airbus and Boeing Plan Increased Output

Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis at the Teal Group, believes current narrowbody production rates are sustainable today, "but going up further can be a real problem. You can go up to 50 or 60 [aircraft per month], but if the slightest thing happens you are in real trouble." He cautions that "the idea to go up further is a great way to engineer overcapacity."

Both Airbus and Boeing have already decided to move production rates up for the narrowbody models—Airbus is boosting the A320 line to 46 aircraft per month from 42, and Boeing is moving 737 production to 47 per month from 38 and is pondering 52. Airbus is also looking at rates higher than 50 when the transition to the A320neo is completed.

Aboulafia also is concerned that some emerging players such as Lion Air or Norwegian may not fulfill their promises. Both airlines have large orders for new narrowbodies with Airbus and Boeing. From a macroeconomic point of view, this is worrisome, he says.

To an extent, the situation for manufacturers is as good as it is because of low interest rates (which encourage investment) and the high cost of fuel. These factors can change, and if Airbus and Boeing are unlucky, fuel will become cheaper and interest rates will rise in parallel. Therefore: "We are taking it too far," Aboulafia contends.

Media Outlet: Bloomberg Tags A320 | Airbus | Boeing

27
June
2014

Airlines’ Rivalry Amplifies Fight Over Bank Guarantees

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Airlines’ Rivalry Amplifies Fight Over Bank Guarantees

And as Emirates, the largest of the Gulf airlines, expands its flights to the United States, some aviation analysts say Delta's arguments are gaining traction. "This is a legitimate complaint," said Richard L. Aboulafia, an aviation consultant at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Va.

Mr. Aboulafia, the aviation analyst, said that Emirates and Etihad Airways, both based in the United Arab Emirates, had already expanded more significantly into Europe, causing problems for European airlines on routes to Asia. "I think that, in the minds of Delta executives, they've seen the future, and it looks like Europe," he said.

Continue reading the main storyContinue reading the main storyContinue reading the main story
Given the various costs in running an airline, he said, it can be hard to quantify that "a slightly lower capital cost on a plane played a key role in driving you out of a market." But, he said, European authorities had "added insult to injury" by focusing more on providing credit guarantees to help Airbus sell its largest plane, the A380, to the Middle Eastern carriers than on protecting their own airlines

Media Outlet: New York Times Tags Emirates | Etihad Airways

30
June
2014

Hunt for RD-180 Replacement Begins

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

Hunt for RD-180 Replacement Begins

And the RD-180 has its supporters. "There's nothing out there that's better in terms of weight-to-power ratio than the RD-180," said Marco Caceres, an analyst with the Virginia-based Teal Group. "I don't know if you can come up with an engine as powerful as the RD-180 in a short time from scratch. "It's really more about developing the least expensive engine that will make the Atlas V much cheaper commercially."

Media Outlet: Defense News Tags Atlas V | RD-180 | Russia | United Launch Alliance

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