Teal Group In The Media

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09
November
2010

L.A. ‘mystery missile’ may have been errant launch, experts say

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

L.A. ‘mystery missile’ may have been errant launch, experts say

Aerospace experts who reviewed the footage said the size of the plume suggests it was a large military rocket or missile. "The launch of a rocket that size doesn't belong to any commercial entity without them issuing a press release," said Marco Caceres, analyst with Teal Group Corp., a Fairfax, Va.-based aerospace research firm. "It can't belong to anyone but the military."

Media Outlet: The Los Angeles Times Tags Contrail

03
May
2010

Forecast for Business Jets: Slow Climb

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

Forecast for Business Jets: Slow Climb

Amid continuing public anger about corporate "fat cat" lifestyles, a fresh recognition of the industry's usefulness would bring welcome relief, said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia. "Business aircraft have been hit harder by the economic crisis than any other aerospace market," Mr. Aboulafia said. "After unprecedented growth, the market fell by 24.3 percent in value of deliveries" from 2008 to 2009. "The good news is that the market has stopped falling," he said in a Teal Group market review. "The bad news is that this is a three-year downturn. We're halfway through a very difficult bust cycle."

Teal foresees no resumption of growth in deliveries until 2012, he said, after which it expects a six-year recovery period of growth averaging 10 percent per year. At that rate, the peak 2008 delivery levels would not be reached again until 2016-17. Last year, Teal's forecast for 2009 to 2018 was for delivery of 9,300 business jets valued at $153.7 billion. This year, it is projecting 10,285 business jet deliveries in the 10 years to 2019, at a current dollar value of $184.1 billion. To that total should be added 649 large business jetliners — corporate versions of regional jets or of the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320 families, worth $36.4 billion; and 3,041 turboprops valued at $13.2 billion. That compares with 7,889 business jets worth $143.4 billion in 2010 dollar values that were delivered in the 10 years ending in 2009.

In contrast with previous cycles, Mr. Aboulafia pointed to an "unprecedented bifurcation" in the market, with 2009 deliveries of jets that cost $25 million or more — the top half of the market in value terms — falling 4.1 percent from 2008, while demand for less expensive planes dropped 42.8 percent. The slump at the less expensive end of the market reflected a sharp drop in demand for fractional ownership — a form of time-share program — and probably also the effect of the credit freeze on all but the wealthiest buyers, he said.

Media Outlet: The New York Times Tags Business Aircraft

10
March
2010

NASA’s Mission To Planet Congress

Featuring: Marco A. Caceres

NASA’s Mission To Planet Congress

The increased focus on commercial-style contractors has earned plaudits from free-market advocates such as Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., who say NASA is too bureaucratic. These advocates say the new plan will shake up NASA’s management and spur the development of cheaper launchers for getting people into space. “My sense is that the administration is pretty set on this, and industry probably knows it’s a done deal,” said Marco Caceres, senior space analyst for the Teal Group, a market research firm in Fairfax, Va. “It doesn’t do Boeing or Lockheed any good to anger the Obama administration, because the serious money for these companies is not in NASA, it’s in the defense department,” he said.

Media Outlet: National Journal Tags Constellation

16
February
2010

Trade Tiffs with China Heating Up

Featuring: Joel Johnson

Trade Tiffs with China Heating Up

Beijing will tread carefully in punishing Boeing over sales of Patriot missiles to Taipei. Near term, it will tilt more purchases by state-controlled carriers away from the U.S. aircraft manufacturer to Airbus, but Airbus lacks the capacity to meet all of China's long-range civil aviation needs. And there's another consideration, as aerospace consultant Joel Johnson of the Teal Group Corp. explains: "A little over half their fleet is Boeing. If they retaliate against (Boeing) aircraft parts, they're only screwing their own airlines."

Media Outlet: Kiplinger Tags Boeing | China | Trade

01
February
2010

How old is the plane you’re flying on?

Featuring: Richard L. Aboulafia

How old is the plane you’re flying on?

U.S. fleets are among the oldest in the world, said Richard Aboulafia, an aviation analyst at the Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia. “I’m not really sure that people should read that much into that,” Aboulafia said. “From a safety standpoint, a lot of the older planes were built tougher and with proper maintenance, there’s no reason why a plane can’t stay safe for 25 to 30 years.” The U.S. and most of the developed world have superb standards and maintenance regulations, the result of decades of experience that have made the system incredibly safe, Aboulafia said.

Media Outlet: CNN Tags 787 Dreamliner

01
February
2010

Sikorsky Venture to Develop Unmanned Black Hawk

Featuring: Steven J. Zaloga

Sikorsky Venture to Develop Unmanned Black Hawk

Sikorsky is jumping into a lucrative and growing market. Steven Zaloga, a senior analyst at Teal Group Corp. in Fairfax, Virginia, said unmanned aerial vehicles represent “one of the few dynamic markets” in the aerospace industry hit hard in the recession. The Teal Group estimates the global market for unmanned aerial vehicle hardware will rise from $2.9 billion this year to $5.5 billion in 2019, Zaloga said.

Media Outlet: Army Times Tags Sikorsky | UAVs

24
November
2009

U.S. to Withhold F-35 Fighter Software Code

Featuring: Joel Johnson

U.S. to Withhold F-35 Fighter Software Code

The source code is "kind of the holy grail" for this, controlling everything from weapons integration to radar to flight dynamics, said Joel Johnson of TEAL Group, an aerospace consultancy in Fairfax, Virginia.

Media Outlet: Reuters

19
September
2009

Missile Policy Likely Blow to Boeing, Boon to Raytheon

Featuring: Philip Finnegan

Missile Policy Likely Blow to Boeing, Boon to Raytheon

Boeing had been slated to manage the construction and installation of 10 ground-based interceptors in Poland that were part of the Bush administration’s original plans. “The losers are clear,” said Phil Finnegan, of the defense and aerospace research firm Teal Group. “Boeing was going to develop that site, and obviously that’s not going to happen.”

Media Outlet: The Washington Post Tags Boeing | Missile Defense System

21
August
2009

Northrop Grumman Seeks Buyer for Its Chantilly Consulting Unit TASC

Featuring: Philip Finnegan

Northrop Grumman Seeks Buyer for Its Chantilly Consulting Unit TASC

“There’s a different wind blowing in Washington,” said Phil Finnegan, a defense industry analyst at the Teal Group. He noted that many programs in which defense companies served as both advisers and architects have run into cost overruns and other problems. “What you saw in the past was a close relationship between government and industry,” he said. “The idea was: Trust the contractor with the ability to come up with the overall architecture and implementation of systems because they have so much capability.” But now there have been problems, he said. “There is a new attitude. There is not the level of trust of contractors you saw a few years ago.”

Media Outlet: The Washington Post

20
April
2009

Weapons Get Smaller, Deadlier at China Lake

Featuring: Steven J. Zaloga

Weapons Get Smaller, Deadlier at China Lake

Engineers at the sprawling China Lake complex, one of the nation’s largest weapons test facilities with 6,600 workers, are hoping to be at the forefront. “We’re sort of at the same stage as we were in 1914 when we began to arm airplanes,” said Steven Zaloga, a military analyst with the Teal Group Corp. Pentagon officials say robotic planes have been particularly effective. As a result, demand for them has climbed sharply and Pentagon planners have rethought how they develop and deploy new weapon systems, analysts said.

Media Outlet: The Los Angeles Times Tags China Lake | Miniature Missiles

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