"We have traditionally limited our mission models looking only 10 years out, but we have now decided to slightly expand the scope to account for payloads that have not actually been proposed but that we know will need to be built and launched to replenish in-orbit operational systems," said Marco Caceres, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Space Systems Briefing, the 1,400-page monthly-updated competitive intelligence service, which features the Model.  (Further details on this space service itself may be obtained from Teal Group sales representatives at https://www.tealgroup.com)

"The Model serves as a starting point from which to begin creating our forecasts of the market.  It is the first step in the process of coming up with numbers that reflect the payloads we project will actually materialize and go up during the next decade," noted Caceres.  "Of the payloads we've surveyed, we forecast just over 830 of them will be built and launched during 2008-2017, with commercial satellites making up 40% of the total."

Commercial payloads, which include traditional telecommunications and TV broadcasting, digital radio and direct TV broadcasting, broadband and mobile communications, and earth imaging satellites account for 42% of the payloads in the Worldwide Mission Model, as compared to 37% for civil payloads, 17% for military, and 4% for university & other.

In Models released during the past three years, the percentage of commercial payloads relative to other types of payloads has been steadily declining from 39% to 36.2% to 34.5%.  But this has now changed, as reflected in the higher number of commercial payloads in the current Model.  Dozens of replacement satellites the Globalstar and Orbcomm mobile communications satellite constellations are proposed for launch before 2010 and dozens of Iridium replacements are anticipated by the middle part of the next decade.  There has also been a noticeable pick up during the past two years in orders for new geostationary commercial communication satellites.

Note that it is European companies, not US or Asian companies, that account for the most commercial GEO commercial satellites.  European satellite operators such as Eutelsat SA, Intelsat plc, and SES Global SA account for 38% of all the GEO commercial satellites in the Model.

North America accounts for 42% of the total payloads in the Model; Europe, 23%; Asia & Pacific Rim, 15%; and Russia and former states of the Soviet Union, 15%; Africa & Middle East, 3%; and Latin America & Caribbean, 2%.   The United States alone accounts for 41% of the payloads.   More than half of all the proposed military payloads are for the US Department of Defense (DoD).  Approximately 30% of all the civil payloads are for NASA.

Teal Group is a defense and aerospace consulting firm based in Fairfax, Virginia.  It provides competitive market intelligence to industry and government.

Payloads Proposed, 2008-2027

(units) 

2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017   

Payloads          280      262      301      205      164      80        105      88        68        42

2018    2019    2020    2021    2022    2023    2024    2025    2026    2027

42        41        29        35        22        29        50        48        51        39

Payloads Forecasted, 2008-2017

(units) 

2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013    2014    2015    2016    2017   

Payloads          78        86        71        95        91        76        72        92        88        85